Port Adelaide Pirates 2–3 Cumberland United

Port Adelaide Pirates

FT

2 – 3

Cumberland United

6/10/2023

South Australia State League 1 · Round 16Ngarrpadla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Port Adelaide Pirates31%

×Draw23%

Cumberland United46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port Adelaide PiratesExpected goals in this matchCumberland United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.81

Port Adelaide Pirates

1.45

Cumberland United

1.81

Cumberland United creates 25% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 46 away

1.32

creates per match

1.26

2.36

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Port Adelaide Pirates

1.32

Cumberland United

1.26

allows per match

Port Adelaide Pirates

2.36

Cumberland United

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Adelaide Pirates+0.00on par

Cumberland United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Adelaide Pirates ↓

Cumberland United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Port Adelaide Pirates or draw

54%

Port Adelaide Pirates or Cumberland United

77%

Draw or Cumberland United

69%

Winning margin

Port Adelaide Pirates wins by 2+

14%

Cumberland United wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Port Adelaide Pirates 1+ goals

77%

Port Adelaide Pirates 2+ goals

42%

Port Adelaide Pirates 3+ goals

18%

Cumberland United 1+ goals

84%

Cumberland United 2+ goals

54%

Cumberland United 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Port Adelaide Pirates (draw refunded)

40%

Cumberland United (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Adelaide Pirates at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

Cumberland United away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.57 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Adelaide Pirates attack 1.32 + Cumberland United defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cumberland United attack 1.26 + Port Adelaide Pirates defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Port Adelaide Pirates scores more

31%

level

23%

Cumberland United scores more

46%

Cumberland United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cumberland United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff