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Pors Grenland vs Vigør — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Pors Grenland
Pors Grenland
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Vigør
Vigør
4/27/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 4Pors Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pors Grenland83%
×Draw11%
Vigør6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pors Grenland
3.29
Vigør
0.83

Pors Grenland creates 296% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Pors Grenland
2.42
Vigør
0.77

allows per match

Pors Grenland
0.89
Vigør
4.15

finishing

Pors Grenland+0.00on par
Vigør+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pors Grenland ↓

Vigør →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Pors Grenland or draw
94%
Pors Grenland or Vigør
89%
Draw or Vigør
17%

Winning margin

Pors Grenland wins by 2+
65%
Vigør wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Pors Grenland 1+ goals
96%
Pors Grenland 2+ goals
83%
Pors Grenland 3+ goals
62%
Vigør 1+ goals
56%
Vigør 2+ goals
20%
Vigør 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pors Grenland (draw refunded)
93%
Vigør (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pors Grenland at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Vigør away — creates 0.77, concedes 4.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pors Grenland attack 2.42 + Vigør defence 4.15 → ÷2 → 3.29

Vigør attack 0.77 + Pors Grenland defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Pors Grenland scores more
83%
level
11%
Vigør scores more
6%

Pors Grenland at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Pors Grenland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Pors Grenland 5–1 Vigør

Pors Grenland beat Vigør 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Pors Stadion in Porsgrunn.