Pors Grenland 2–1 Start II: Result & Stats

Pors Grenland

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Start II

8/17/2024

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 17Pors Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pors Grenland71%

×Draw15%

Start II14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pors GrenlandExpected goals in this matchStart II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.90

1.22

Pors Grenland

2.90

Start II

1.22

Pors Grenland creates 138% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

2.42

creates per match

1.54

0.89

allows per match

3.38

creates per match

Pors Grenland

2.42

Start II

1.54

allows per match

Pors Grenland

0.89

Start II

3.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pors Grenland+0.00on par

Start II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pors Grenland ↓

Start II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Pors Grenland or draw

86%

Pors Grenland or Start II

85%

Draw or Start II

29%

Winning margin

Pors Grenland wins by 2+

51%

Start II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Pors Grenland 1+ goals

94%

Pors Grenland 2+ goals

78%

Pors Grenland 3+ goals

54%

Start II 1+ goals

70%

Start II 2+ goals

34%

Start II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pors Grenland (draw refunded)

84%

Start II (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pors Grenland at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Start II away — creates 1.54, concedes 3.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pors Grenland attack 2.42 + Start II defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.90

Start II attack 1.54 + Pors Grenland defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Pors Grenland scores more

71%

level

15%

Start II scores more

14%

Pors Grenland at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Pors Grenland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff