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Pors Grenland vs Halsen — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Pors Grenland
Pors Grenland
FT
4 – 0
Halsen
Halsen
10/11/20213. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 10Pors Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Pors Grenland80%
×Draw12%
Halsen8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pors Grenland
3.21
Halsen
0.95

Pors Grenland creates 238% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Pors Grenland
2.42
Halsen
1.00

allows per match

Pors Grenland
0.89
Halsen
4.00

finishing

Pors Grenland+0.00on par
Halsen+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pors Grenland ↓

Halsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Pors Grenland or draw
92%
Pors Grenland or Halsen
88%
Draw or Halsen
20%

Winning margin

Pors Grenland wins by 2+
62%
Halsen wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Pors Grenland 1+ goals
96%
Pors Grenland 2+ goals
82%
Pors Grenland 3+ goals
60%
Halsen 1+ goals
61%
Halsen 2+ goals
25%
Halsen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pors Grenland (draw refunded)
91%
Halsen (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pors Grenland at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Halsen away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pors Grenland attack 2.42 + Halsen defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.21

Halsen attack 1.00 + Pors Grenland defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Pors Grenland scores more
80%
level
12%
Halsen scores more
8%

Pors Grenland at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Pors Grenland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Pors Grenland 4–0 Halsen

Pors Grenland beat Halsen 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on October 11, 2021.

The match was played at Pors Stadion in Porsgrunn.