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Pors Grenland vs Express — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Pors Grenland
Pors Grenland
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Express
Express
6/25/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 12Pors Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pors Grenland67%
×Draw17%
Express16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pors Grenland
2.77
Express
1.32

Pors Grenland creates 110% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Pors Grenland
2.46
Express
1.38

allows per match

Pors Grenland
1.27
Express
3.08

finishing

Pors Grenland+0.00on par
Express+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pors Grenland ↓

Express →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Pors Grenland or draw
84%
Pors Grenland or Express
83%
Draw or Express
33%

Winning margin

Pors Grenland wins by 2+
46%
Express wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pors Grenland 1+ goals
94%
Pors Grenland 2+ goals
76%
Pors Grenland 3+ goals
51%
Express 1+ goals
73%
Express 2+ goals
38%
Express 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pors Grenland (draw refunded)
80%
Express (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pors Grenland at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Express away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pors Grenland attack 2.46 + Express defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.77

Express attack 1.38 + Pors Grenland defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Pors Grenland scores more
67%
level
17%
Express scores more
16%

Pors Grenland at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Pors Grenland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pors Grenland vs Express

Express beat Pors Grenland 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on June 25, 2022.

The match was played at Pors Stadion in Porsgrunn.