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Pors Grenland II vs Stabæk II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Pors Grenland II
Pors Grenland II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stabæk II
Stabæk II
5/25/20253. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 7Pors Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pors Grenland II30%
×Draw21%
Stabæk II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pors Grenland II
1.63
Stabæk II
2.11

Stabæk II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Pors Grenland II
1.31
Stabæk II
1.68

allows per match

Pors Grenland II
2.54
Stabæk II
1.95

finishing

Pors Grenland II+0.00on par
Stabæk II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pors Grenland II ↓

Stabæk II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Pors Grenland II or draw
51%
Pors Grenland II or Stabæk II
79%
Draw or Stabæk II
70%

Winning margin

Pors Grenland II wins by 2+
14%
Stabæk II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Pors Grenland II 1+ goals
80%
Pors Grenland II 2+ goals
48%
Pors Grenland II 3+ goals
22%
Stabæk II 1+ goals
88%
Stabæk II 2+ goals
62%
Stabæk II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Pors Grenland II (draw refunded)
38%
Stabæk II (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pors Grenland II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Stabæk II away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pors Grenland II attack 1.31 + Stabæk II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.63

Stabæk II attack 1.68 + Pors Grenland II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pors Grenland II scores more
30%
level
21%
Stabæk II scores more
49%

Stabæk II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stabæk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pors Grenland II vs Stabæk II

Pors Grenland II and Stabæk II drew 0-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Pors Stadion in Porsgrunn.