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Pors Grenland II vs Sarpsborg 08 II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Pors Grenland II
Pors Grenland II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
Sarpsborg 08 II
Sarpsborg 08 II
9/1/20253. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 18Pors 2 KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pors Grenland II38%
×Draw21%
Sarpsborg 08 II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pors Grenland II
1.93
Sarpsborg 08 II
1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Pors Grenland II
1.31
Sarpsborg 08 II
1.42

allows per match

Pors Grenland II
2.54
Sarpsborg 08 II
2.55

finishing

Pors Grenland II+0.00on par
Sarpsborg 08 II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pors Grenland II ↓

Sarpsborg 08 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Pors Grenland II or draw
60%
Pors Grenland II or Sarpsborg 08 II
79%
Draw or Sarpsborg 08 II
62%

Winning margin

Pors Grenland II wins by 2+
21%
Sarpsborg 08 II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Pors Grenland II 1+ goals
85%
Pors Grenland II 2+ goals
57%
Pors Grenland II 3+ goals
30%
Sarpsborg 08 II 1+ goals
86%
Sarpsborg 08 II 2+ goals
59%
Sarpsborg 08 II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Pors Grenland II (draw refunded)
49%
Sarpsborg 08 II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pors Grenland II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Sarpsborg 08 II away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pors Grenland II attack 1.31 + Sarpsborg 08 II defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.93

Sarpsborg 08 II attack 1.42 + Pors Grenland II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pors Grenland II scores more
38%
level
21%
Sarpsborg 08 II scores more
40%

Sarpsborg 08 II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Pors Grenland II 3–2 Sarpsborg 08 II

Pors Grenland II beat Sarpsborg 08 II 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on September 1, 2025.

The match was played at Pors 2 KG in Porsgrunn.