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Pors Grenland II vs Ørn Horten — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Pors Grenland II
Pors Grenland II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ørn Horten
Ørn Horten
10/5/20253. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 23Pors Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pors Grenland II29%
×Draw22%
Ørn Horten49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pors Grenland II
1.45
Ørn Horten
1.93

Ørn Horten creates 33% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Pors Grenland II
1.31
Ørn Horten
1.32

allows per match

Pors Grenland II
2.54
Ørn Horten
1.58

finishing

Pors Grenland II+0.00on par
Ørn Horten+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pors Grenland II ↓

Ørn Horten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Pors Grenland II or draw
51%
Pors Grenland II or Ørn Horten
78%
Draw or Ørn Horten
71%

Winning margin

Pors Grenland II wins by 2+
13%
Ørn Horten wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Pors Grenland II 1+ goals
77%
Pors Grenland II 2+ goals
42%
Pors Grenland II 3+ goals
18%
Ørn Horten 1+ goals
85%
Ørn Horten 2+ goals
57%
Ørn Horten 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Pors Grenland II (draw refunded)
37%
Ørn Horten (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pors Grenland II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Ørn Horten away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pors Grenland II attack 1.31 + Ørn Horten defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ørn Horten attack 1.32 + Pors Grenland II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pors Grenland II scores more
29%
level
22%
Ørn Horten scores more
49%

Ørn Horten at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ørn Horten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pors Grenland II vs Ørn Horten

Ørn Horten beat Pors Grenland II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Pors Stadion in Porsgrunn.