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Pors Grenland II vs Kvik Halden — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Pors Grenland II
Pors Grenland II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kvik Halden
Kvik Halden
3/30/20253. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 1Pors Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pors Grenland II17%
×Draw17%
Kvik Halden66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pors Grenland II
1.31
Kvik Halden
2.66

Kvik Halden creates 103% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Pors Grenland II
1.31
Kvik Halden
2.77

allows per match

Pors Grenland II
2.54
Kvik Halden
1.31

finishing

Pors Grenland II+0.00on par
Kvik Halden+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pors Grenland II ↓

Kvik Halden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Pors Grenland II or draw
34%
Pors Grenland II or Kvik Halden
83%
Draw or Kvik Halden
83%

Winning margin

Pors Grenland II wins by 2+
7%
Kvik Halden wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Pors Grenland II 1+ goals
73%
Pors Grenland II 2+ goals
38%
Pors Grenland II 3+ goals
14%
Kvik Halden 1+ goals
93%
Kvik Halden 2+ goals
74%
Kvik Halden 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Pors Grenland II (draw refunded)
21%
Kvik Halden (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pors Grenland II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Kvik Halden away — creates 2.77, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pors Grenland II attack 1.31 + Kvik Halden defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Kvik Halden attack 2.77 + Pors Grenland II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Pors Grenland II scores more
17%
level
17%
Kvik Halden scores more
66%

Kvik Halden at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kvik Halden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pors Grenland II vs Kvik Halden

Pors Grenland II beat Kvik Halden 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Pors Stadion in Porsgrunn.