Pors Grenland II 1–2 Fram: Result & Stats

Pors Grenland II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Fram

6/9/2025

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 9Pors Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pors Grenland II28%

×Draw20%

Fram51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pors Grenland IIExpected goals in this matchFram

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

2.29

Pors Grenland II

1.68

Fram

2.29

Fram creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

1.31

creates per match

2.05

2.54

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Pors Grenland II

1.31

Fram

2.05

allows per match

Pors Grenland II

2.54

Fram

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pors Grenland II+0.00on par

Fram+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pors Grenland II ↓

Fram →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

75%25%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Pors Grenland II or draw

49%

Pors Grenland II or Fram

80%

Draw or Fram

72%

Winning margin

Pors Grenland II wins by 2+

14%

Fram wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Pors Grenland II 1+ goals

81%

Pors Grenland II 2+ goals

50%

Pors Grenland II 3+ goals

24%

Fram 1+ goals

90%

Fram 2+ goals

66%

Fram 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Pors Grenland II (draw refunded)

36%

Fram (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pors Grenland II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Fram away — creates 2.05, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pors Grenland II attack 1.31 + Fram defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.68

Fram attack 2.05 + Pors Grenland II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pors Grenland II scores more

28%

level

20%

Fram scores more

51%

Fram at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fram will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff