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Porreres vs Portmany — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Porreres
Porreres
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Portmany
Portmany
9/15/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2Campo de fútbol porreres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Porreres54%
×Draw25%
Portmany21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Porreres
1.57
Portmany
0.88

Porreres creates 78% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 112 away

creates per match

Porreres
1.41
Portmany
0.99

allows per match

Porreres
0.76
Portmany
1.73

finishing

Porreres+0.00on par
Portmany+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porreres ↓

Portmany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Porreres or draw
79%
Porreres or Portmany
75%
Draw or Portmany
46%

Winning margin

Porreres wins by 2+
28%
Portmany wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Porreres 1+ goals
79%
Porreres 2+ goals
46%
Porreres 3+ goals
21%
Portmany 1+ goals
59%
Portmany 2+ goals
22%
Portmany 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Porreres (draw refunded)
72%
Portmany (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porreres at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Portmany away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.73 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porreres attack 1.41 + Portmany defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.57

Portmany attack 0.99 + Porreres defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Porreres scores more
54%
level
25%
Portmany scores more
21%

Porreres at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Porreres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Porreres 1–0 Portmany

Porreres beat Portmany 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol porreres in Mallorca.