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Porreres vs Llosetense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Porreres
Porreres
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Llosetense
Llosetense
9/29/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 4Campo de fútbol porreres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Porreres45%
×Draw27%
Llosetense28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Porreres
1.38
Llosetense
1.04

Porreres creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 116 away

creates per match

Porreres
1.41
Llosetense
1.31

allows per match

Porreres
0.76
Llosetense
1.34

finishing

Porreres+0.00on par
Llosetense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porreres ↓

Llosetense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Porreres or draw
72%
Porreres or Llosetense
73%
Draw or Llosetense
55%

Winning margin

Porreres wins by 2+
21%
Llosetense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Porreres 1+ goals
75%
Porreres 2+ goals
40%
Porreres 3+ goals
16%
Llosetense 1+ goals
65%
Llosetense 2+ goals
28%
Llosetense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Porreres (draw refunded)
61%
Llosetense (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porreres at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Llosetense away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porreres attack 1.41 + Llosetense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Llosetense attack 1.31 + Porreres defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Porreres scores more
45%
level
27%
Llosetense scores more
28%

Porreres at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Porreres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Porreres vs Llosetense

Porreres and Llosetense drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol porreres in Mallorca.