Porreres 5–1 Collerense: Result & Stats

Porreres

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Collerense

11/3/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 9Campo de fútbol porreres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Porreres55%

×Draw25%

Collerense20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PorreresExpected goals in this matchCollerense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.88

Porreres

1.65

Collerense

0.88

Porreres creates 88% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 113 away

1.41

creates per match

1.00

0.76

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Porreres

1.41

Collerense

1.00

allows per match

Porreres

0.76

Collerense

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Porreres+0.00on par

Collerense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porreres ↓

Collerense →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Porreres or draw

80%

Porreres or Collerense

75%

Draw or Collerense

45%

Winning margin

Porreres wins by 2+

30%

Collerense wins by 2+

Team goals

Porreres 1+ goals

81%

Porreres 2+ goals

49%

Porreres 3+ goals

23%

Collerense 1+ goals

59%

Collerense 2+ goals

22%

Collerense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Porreres (draw refunded)

74%

Collerense (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Porreres at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Collerense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Porreres attack 1.41 + Collerense defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.65

Collerense attack 1.00 + Porreres defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Porreres scores more

55%

level

25%

Collerense scores more

20%

Porreres at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Porreres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff