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Poříčany vs Trutnov — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Poříčany
Poříčany
FT
2 – 1
Trutnov
Trutnov
9/20/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 5Poříčany - tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Poříčany41%
×Draw22%
Trutnov37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poříčany
1.85
Trutnov
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 72 away

creates per match

Poříčany
1.60
Trutnov
1.65

allows per match

Poříčany
1.80
Trutnov
2.11

finishing

Poříčany+0.00on par
Trutnov+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poříčany ↓

Trutnov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Poříčany or draw
63%
Poříčany or Trutnov
78%
Draw or Trutnov
59%

Winning margin

Poříčany wins by 2+
22%
Trutnov wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Poříčany 1+ goals
84%
Poříčany 2+ goals
55%
Poříčany 3+ goals
28%
Trutnov 1+ goals
82%
Trutnov 2+ goals
52%
Trutnov 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Poříčany (draw refunded)
53%
Trutnov (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poříčany at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

Trutnov away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.11 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poříčany attack 1.60 + Trutnov defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.85

Trutnov attack 1.65 + Poříčany defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Poříčany scores more
41%
level
22%
Trutnov scores more
37%

Poříčany at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Poříčany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Poříčany 2–1 Trutnov

Poříčany beat Trutnov 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Poříčany - tráva in Poříčany.