Poříčany 2–0 Polaban Nymburk: Result & Stats

Poříčany

FT

2 – 0

Polaban Nymburk

9/6/2020

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 3Poříčany - tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Poříčany64%

×Draw19%

Polaban Nymburk17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PoříčanyExpected goals in this matchPolaban Nymburk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.06

Poříčany

2.26

Polaban Nymburk

1.06

Poříčany creates 113% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 12 away

1.60

creates per match

0.33

1.80

allows per match

2.92

creates per match

Poříčany

1.60

Polaban Nymburk

0.33

allows per match

Poříčany

1.80

Polaban Nymburk

2.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poříčany+0.00on par

Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poříčany ↓

Polaban Nymburk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Poříčany or draw

83%

Poříčany or Polaban Nymburk

81%

Draw or Polaban Nymburk

36%

Winning margin

Poříčany wins by 2+

41%

Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Poříčany 1+ goals

89%

Poříčany 2+ goals

66%

Poříčany 3+ goals

39%

Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals

65%

Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals

29%

Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Poříčany (draw refunded)

79%

Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poříčany at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

Polaban Nymburk away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poříčany attack 1.60 + Polaban Nymburk defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.26

Polaban Nymburk attack 0.33 + Poříčany defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Poříčany scores more

64%

level

19%

Polaban Nymburk scores more

17%

Poříčany at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Poříčany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff