Poříčany 1–1 Ostrá: Result & Stats

Poříčany

Pens

1 – 1

Ostrá

11/3/2019

4. liga - Divizie C · Round 13Poříčany - tráva (Poříčany)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Poříčany36%

×Draw23%

Ostrá40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PoříčanyExpected goals in this matchOstrá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.65

Poříčany

1.55

Ostrá

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 6 away

1.60

creates per match

1.50

1.80

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Poříčany

1.60

Ostrá

1.50

allows per match

Poříčany

1.80

Ostrá

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poříčany+0.00on par

Ostrá+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poříčany ↓

Ostrá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Poříčany or draw

60%

Poříčany or Ostrá

77%

Draw or Ostrá

64%

Winning margin

Poříčany wins by 2+

17%

Ostrá wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Poříčany 1+ goals

79%

Poříčany 2+ goals

46%

Poříčany 3+ goals

20%

Ostrá 1+ goals

81%

Ostrá 2+ goals

49%

Ostrá 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Poříčany (draw refunded)

47%

Ostrá (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poříčany at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

Ostrá away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poříčany attack 1.60 + Ostrá defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Ostrá attack 1.50 + Poříčany defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Poříčany scores more

36%

level

23%

Ostrá scores more

40%

Ostrá at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ostrá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff