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Poříčany vs Náchod — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Poříčany
Poříčany
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Náchod
Náchod
6/11/20224. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 29Poříčany - tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Poříčany44%
×Draw23%
Náchod33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poříčany
1.79
Náchod
1.53

Poříčany creates 17% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 54 away

creates per match

Poříčany
1.60
Náchod
1.26

allows per match

Poříčany
1.80
Náchod
1.98

finishing

Poříčany+0.00on par
Náchod+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poříčany ↓

Náchod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Poříčany or draw
67%
Poříčany or Náchod
77%
Draw or Náchod
56%

Winning margin

Poříčany wins by 2+
23%
Náchod wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Poříčany 1+ goals
83%
Poříčany 2+ goals
53%
Poříčany 3+ goals
26%
Náchod 1+ goals
78%
Náchod 2+ goals
45%
Náchod 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Poříčany (draw refunded)
57%
Náchod (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poříčany at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

Náchod away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.98 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poříčany attack 1.60 + Náchod defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.79

Náchod attack 1.26 + Poříčany defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Poříčany scores more
44%
level
23%
Náchod scores more
33%

Poříčany at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Poříčany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Poříčany vs Náchod

Náchod beat Poříčany 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie C on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Poříčany - tráva in Poříčany.