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Poříčany vs Kolín — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Poříčany
Poříčany
CANC
15:00
Kolín
Kolín
5/9/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 15Poříčany - tráva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Poříčany26%
×Draw21%
Kolín53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poříčany
1.44
Kolín
2.10

Kolín creates 46% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Poříčany
1.60
Kolín
2.40

allows per match

Poříčany
1.80
Kolín
1.28

finishing

Poříčany+0.00on par
Kolín+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poříčany ↓

Kolín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Poříčany or draw
47%
Poříčany or Kolín
79%
Draw or Kolín
74%

Winning margin

Poříčany wins by 2+
12%
Kolín wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Poříčany 1+ goals
76%
Poříčany 2+ goals
42%
Poříčany 3+ goals
18%
Kolín 1+ goals
88%
Kolín 2+ goals
62%
Kolín 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Poříčany (draw refunded)
33%
Kolín (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poříčany at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

Kolín away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poříčany attack 1.60 + Kolín defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kolín attack 2.40 + Poříčany defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Poříčany scores more
26%
level
21%
Kolín scores more
53%

Kolín at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kolín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Poříčany face Kolín (4. liga - Divizie C)

4. liga - Divizie C returns with Poříčany hosting Kolín. Match starts May 9, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Poříčany host Kolín at Poříčany - tráva.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.