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Pordenone vs Vicenza Virtus — Serie B 2018

Pordenone
Pordenone
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vicenza Virtus
Vicenza Virtus
2/6/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 21Stadio Guido Teghil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Pordenone45%
×Draw26%
Vicenza Virtus29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pordenone
1.43
Vicenza Virtus
1.09

Pordenone creates 31% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 44 away

creates per match

Pordenone
1.22
Vicenza Virtus
1.02

allows per match

Pordenone
1.16
Vicenza Virtus
1.64

finishing

Pordenone+0.00on par
Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pordenone ↓

Vicenza Virtus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pordenone or draw
71%
Pordenone or Vicenza Virtus
74%
Draw or Vicenza Virtus
55%

Winning margin

Pordenone wins by 2+
22%
Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pordenone 1+ goals
76%
Pordenone 2+ goals
42%
Pordenone 3+ goals
17%
Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals
66%
Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals
30%
Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pordenone (draw refunded)
61%
Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pordenone at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Vicenza Virtus away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.64 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pordenone attack 1.22 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.43

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.02 + Pordenone defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pordenone scores more
45%
level
26%
Vicenza Virtus scores more
29%

Pordenone at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pordenone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Pordenone 1–2 Vicenza Virtus

Vicenza Virtus beat Pordenone 2-1 in Serie B on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Guido Teghil in Lignano Sabbiadoro.