Pordenone 1–3 Ternana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Pordenone

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Ternana

10/16/2021

Serie B · Round 8Stadio Guido Teghil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Pordenone44%

×Draw26%

Ternana31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PordenoneExpected goals in this matchTernana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.20

Pordenone

1.48

Ternana

1.20

Pordenone creates 23% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 59 away

1.22

creates per match

1.24

1.16

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Pordenone

1.22

Ternana

1.24

allows per match

Pordenone

1.16

Ternana

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pordenone+0.00on par

Ternana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pordenone ↓

Ternana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Pordenone or draw

69%

Pordenone or Ternana

74%

Draw or Ternana

56%

Winning margin

Pordenone wins by 2+

21%

Ternana wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pordenone 1+ goals

77%

Pordenone 2+ goals

43%

Pordenone 3+ goals

19%

Ternana 1+ goals

70%

Ternana 2+ goals

34%

Ternana 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pordenone (draw refunded)

59%

Ternana (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pordenone at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Ternana away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.73 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pordenone attack 1.22 + Ternana defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ternana attack 1.24 + Pordenone defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pordenone scores more

44%

level

26%

Ternana scores more

31%

Pordenone at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pordenone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff