Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pordenone vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Pordenone
Pordenone
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spezia
Spezia
9/13/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 3Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Pordenone40%
×Draw27%
Spezia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pordenone
1.29
Spezia
1.14

Pordenone creates 13% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 98 away

creates per match

Pordenone
1.22
Spezia
1.12

allows per match

Pordenone
1.16
Spezia
1.36

finishing

Pordenone+0.00on par
Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pordenone ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pordenone or draw
67%
Pordenone or Spezia
73%
Draw or Spezia
60%

Winning margin

Pordenone wins by 2+
18%
Spezia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pordenone 1+ goals
72%
Pordenone 2+ goals
37%
Pordenone 3+ goals
14%
Spezia 1+ goals
68%
Spezia 2+ goals
32%
Spezia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pordenone (draw refunded)
55%
Spezia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pordenone at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pordenone attack 1.22 + Spezia defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Spezia attack 1.12 + Pordenone defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pordenone scores more
40%
level
27%
Spezia scores more
33%

Pordenone at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pordenone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Pordenone 1–0 Spezia

Pordenone beat Spezia 1-0 in Serie B on September 13, 2019.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.