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Pordenone vs Lecce — Serie B 2018

Pordenone
Pordenone
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lecce
Lecce
1/30/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 20Stadio Guido Teghil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Pordenone34%
×Draw27%
Lecce39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pordenone
1.20
Lecce
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 57 away

creates per match

Pordenone
1.22
Lecce
1.44

allows per match

Pordenone
1.16
Lecce
1.18

finishing

Pordenone+0.00on par
Lecce+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pordenone ↓

Lecce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pordenone or draw
61%
Pordenone or Lecce
73%
Draw or Lecce
66%

Winning margin

Pordenone wins by 2+
14%
Lecce wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pordenone 1+ goals
70%
Pordenone 2+ goals
34%
Pordenone 3+ goals
12%
Lecce 1+ goals
73%
Lecce 2+ goals
37%
Lecce 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pordenone (draw refunded)
47%
Lecce (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pordenone at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Lecce away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pordenone attack 1.22 + Lecce defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.20

Lecce attack 1.44 + Pordenone defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pordenone scores more
34%
level
27%
Lecce scores more
39%

Lecce at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pordenone vs Lecce

Pordenone and Lecce drew 1-1 in Serie B on January 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Guido Teghil in Lignano Sabbiadoro.