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Pordenone vs Juve Stabia — Serie B 2018

Pordenone
Pordenone
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia
3/3/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 27Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Pordenone45%
×Draw27%
Juve Stabia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pordenone
1.38
Juve Stabia
1.04

Pordenone creates 33% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 60 away

creates per match

Pordenone
1.22
Juve Stabia
0.92

allows per match

Pordenone
1.16
Juve Stabia
1.53

finishing

Pordenone+0.00on par
Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pordenone ↓

Juve Stabia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pordenone or draw
72%
Pordenone or Juve Stabia
73%
Draw or Juve Stabia
55%

Winning margin

Pordenone wins by 2+
21%
Juve Stabia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pordenone 1+ goals
75%
Pordenone 2+ goals
40%
Pordenone 3+ goals
16%
Juve Stabia 1+ goals
65%
Juve Stabia 2+ goals
28%
Juve Stabia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pordenone (draw refunded)
61%
Juve Stabia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pordenone at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Juve Stabia away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pordenone attack 1.22 + Juve Stabia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Juve Stabia attack 0.92 + Pordenone defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pordenone scores more
45%
level
27%
Juve Stabia scores more
28%

Pordenone at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pordenone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pordenone vs Juve Stabia

Pordenone beat Juve Stabia 2-1 in Serie B on March 3, 2020.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.