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Pordenone vs Chievo — Serie B 2018

Pordenone
Pordenone
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chievo
Chievo
2/23/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 25Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Pordenone38%
×Draw28%
Chievo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pordenone
1.20
Chievo
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 39 away

creates per match

Pordenone
1.22
Chievo
1.05

allows per match

Pordenone
1.16
Chievo
1.18

finishing

Pordenone+0.00on par
Chievo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pordenone ↓

Chievo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pordenone or draw
67%
Pordenone or Chievo
72%
Draw or Chievo
62%

Winning margin

Pordenone wins by 2+
16%
Chievo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pordenone 1+ goals
70%
Pordenone 2+ goals
34%
Pordenone 3+ goals
12%
Chievo 1+ goals
67%
Chievo 2+ goals
30%
Chievo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pordenone (draw refunded)
53%
Chievo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pordenone at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Chievo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pordenone attack 1.22 + Chievo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.20

Chievo attack 1.05 + Pordenone defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pordenone scores more
38%
level
28%
Chievo scores more
33%

Pordenone at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pordenone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pordenone vs Chievo

Chievo beat Pordenone 1-0 in Serie B on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.