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Pordenone U19 vs Padova U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Pordenone U19
Pordenone U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Padova U19
Padova U19
10/1/2022Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 3Centro Sportivo Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Pordenone U1931%
×Draw24%
Padova U1945%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pordenone U19
1.35
Padova U19
1.65

Padova U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 61 away

creates per match

Pordenone U19
0.97
Padova U19
0.98

allows per match

Pordenone U19
2.31
Padova U19
1.74

finishing

Pordenone U19+0.00on par
Padova U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pordenone U19 ↓

Padova U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pordenone U19 or draw
55%
Pordenone U19 or Padova U19
76%
Draw or Padova U19
69%

Winning margin

Pordenone U19 wins by 2+
14%
Padova U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Pordenone U19 1+ goals
74%
Pordenone U19 2+ goals
39%
Pordenone U19 3+ goals
15%
Padova U19 1+ goals
81%
Padova U19 2+ goals
49%
Padova U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Pordenone U19 (draw refunded)
41%
Padova U19 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pordenone U19 at home — creates 0.97, concedes 2.31 · 39 matches

Padova U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.74 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pordenone U19 attack 0.97 + Padova U19 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.35

Padova U19 attack 0.98 + Pordenone U19 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pordenone U19 scores more
31%
level
24%
Padova U19 scores more
45%

Padova U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Padova U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pordenone U19 vs Padova U19

Pordenone U19 beat Padova U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Comunale in Cordenons.