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Poprad W vs Spartak Trnava W — I Liga - Women 2020

Poprad W
Poprad W
CANC
13:00
Spartak Trnava W
Spartak Trnava W
5/8/2021I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 14Futbalový štadión Spišská Teplica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Poprad W11%
×Draw12%
Spartak Trnava W77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poprad W
1.44
Spartak Trnava W
3.77

Spartak Trnava W creates 162% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 69 away

creates per match

Poprad W
0.33
Spartak Trnava W
1.55

allows per match

Poprad W
6.00
Spartak Trnava W
2.54

finishing

Poprad W+0.00on par
Spartak Trnava W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poprad W ↓

Spartak Trnava W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Poprad W or draw
23%
Poprad W or Spartak Trnava W
88%
Draw or Spartak Trnava W
89%

Winning margin

Poprad W wins by 2+
4%
Spartak Trnava W wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

Poprad W 1+ goals
76%
Poprad W 2+ goals
42%
Poprad W 3+ goals
18%
Spartak Trnava W 1+ goals
97%
Spartak Trnava W 2+ goals
88%
Spartak Trnava W 3+ goals
70%

Draw no bet

Poprad W (draw refunded)
12%
Spartak Trnava W (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poprad W at home — creates 0.33, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

Spartak Trnava W away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.54 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poprad W attack 0.33 + Spartak Trnava W defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.44

Spartak Trnava W attack 1.55 + Poprad W defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 3.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Poprad W scores more
11%
level
12%
Spartak Trnava W scores more
77%

Spartak Trnava W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Spartak Trnava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Poprad W host Spartak Trnava W

May 8, 2021: Poprad W take on Spartak Trnava W in I Liga - Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Poprad W host Spartak Trnava W at Futbalový štadión Spišská Teplica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.