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Poprad W vs Spartak Myjava W — I Liga - Women 2020

Poprad W
Poprad W
FT
1 – 9
Spartak Myjava W
Spartak Myjava W
8/22/2020I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 2Futbalový Štadión FK Poprad - Veľká

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Poprad W1%
×Draw3%
Spartak Myjava W96%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poprad W
0.52
Spartak Myjava W
5.10

Spartak Myjava W creates 881% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 67 away

creates per match

Poprad W
0.33
Spartak Myjava W
4.19

allows per match

Poprad W
6.00
Spartak Myjava W
0.70

finishing

Poprad W+0.00on par
Spartak Myjava W+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poprad W ↓

Spartak Myjava W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–26%
0–311%
0–414%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–23%
1–36%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–31%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (14%) · grid covers 57% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Poprad W or draw
4%
Poprad W or Spartak Myjava W
97%
Draw or Spartak Myjava W
99%

Winning margin

Poprad W wins by 2+
0%
Spartak Myjava W wins by 2+
89%

Team goals

Poprad W 1+ goals
41%
Poprad W 2+ goals
10%
Poprad W 3+ goals
2%
Spartak Myjava W 1+ goals
99%
Spartak Myjava W 2+ goals
95%
Spartak Myjava W 3+ goals
84%

Draw no bet

Poprad W (draw refunded)
1%
Spartak Myjava W (draw refunded)
99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poprad W at home — creates 0.33, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

Spartak Myjava W away — creates 4.19, concedes 0.70 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poprad W attack 0.33 + Spartak Myjava W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.52

Spartak Myjava W attack 4.19 + Poprad W defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 5.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

Poprad W scores more
1%
level
3%
Spartak Myjava W scores more
96%

Spartak Myjava W at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "Spartak Myjava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Poprad W vs Spartak Myjava W

Spartak Myjava W beat Poprad W 9-1 in I Liga - Women on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Futbalový Štadión FK Poprad - Veľká in Poprad.