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Poprad W vs Slovan Bratislava W — I Liga - Women 2020

Poprad W
Poprad W
CANC
14:00
Slovan Bratislava W
Slovan Bratislava W
11/7/2020I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 9Futbalový Štadión FK Poprad - Veľká

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Poprad W2%
×Draw4%
Slovan Bratislava W94%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poprad W
0.71
Slovan Bratislava W
4.79

Slovan Bratislava W creates 575% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 67 away

creates per match

Poprad W
0.33
Slovan Bratislava W
3.58

allows per match

Poprad W
6.00
Slovan Bratislava W
1.09

finishing

Poprad W+0.00on par
Slovan Bratislava W+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poprad W ↓

Slovan Bratislava W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–26%
0–39%
0–411%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–32%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (11%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Poprad W or draw
6%
Poprad W or Slovan Bratislava W
96%
Draw or Slovan Bratislava W
98%

Winning margin

Poprad W wins by 2+
0%
Slovan Bratislava W wins by 2+
84%

Team goals

Poprad W 1+ goals
51%
Poprad W 2+ goals
16%
Poprad W 3+ goals
4%
Slovan Bratislava W 1+ goals
99%
Slovan Bratislava W 2+ goals
94%
Slovan Bratislava W 3+ goals
82%

Draw no bet

Poprad W (draw refunded)
2%
Slovan Bratislava W (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poprad W at home — creates 0.33, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

Slovan Bratislava W away — creates 3.58, concedes 1.09 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poprad W attack 0.33 + Slovan Bratislava W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.71

Slovan Bratislava W attack 3.58 + Poprad W defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 4.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Poprad W scores more
2%
level
4%
Slovan Bratislava W scores more
94%

Slovan Bratislava W at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Poprad W vs Slovan Bratislava W — Match Preview

Poprad W face Slovan Bratislava W on November 7, 2020 in this I Liga - Women fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Poprad W host Slovan Bratislava W at Futbalový Štadión FK Poprad - Veľká.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.