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Poprad W vs Partizán Bardejov W — I Liga - Women 2020

Poprad W
Poprad W
CANC
14:00
Partizán Bardejov W
Partizán Bardejov W
3/13/2021I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 10Futbalový Štadión FK Poprad - Veľká

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Poprad W6%
×Draw9%
Partizán Bardejov W85%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poprad W
1.09
Partizán Bardejov W
4.00

Partizán Bardejov W creates 267% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Poprad W
0.33
Partizán Bardejov W
2.00

allows per match

Poprad W
6.00
Partizán Bardejov W
1.86

finishing

Poprad W+0.00on par
Partizán Bardejov W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poprad W ↓

Partizán Bardejov W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–37%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Poprad W or draw
15%
Poprad W or Partizán Bardejov W
91%
Draw or Partizán Bardejov W
94%

Winning margin

Poprad W wins by 2+
2%
Partizán Bardejov W wins by 2+
70%

Team goals

Poprad W 1+ goals
66%
Poprad W 2+ goals
30%
Poprad W 3+ goals
10%
Partizán Bardejov W 1+ goals
98%
Partizán Bardejov W 2+ goals
90%
Partizán Bardejov W 3+ goals
73%

Draw no bet

Poprad W (draw refunded)
7%
Partizán Bardejov W (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poprad W at home — creates 0.33, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

Partizán Bardejov W away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poprad W attack 0.33 + Partizán Bardejov W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Partizán Bardejov W attack 2.00 + Poprad W defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 4.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Poprad W scores more
6%
level
9%
Partizán Bardejov W scores more
85%

Partizán Bardejov W at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Partizán Bardejov W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Poprad W host Partizán Bardejov W

March 13, 2021: Poprad W take on Partizán Bardejov W in I Liga - Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Poprad W host Partizán Bardejov W at Futbalový Štadión FK Poprad - Veľká.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.