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Poprad vs Svidník — 3. liga - East 2020

Poprad
Poprad
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Svidník
Svidník
4/30/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 23Futbalový štadion NTC Poprad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Poprad69%
×Draw17%
Svidník13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poprad
2.45
Svidník
0.98

Poprad creates 150% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 52 away

creates per match

Poprad
1.55
Svidník
1.06

allows per match

Poprad
0.90
Svidník
3.35

finishing

Poprad+0.00on par
Svidník+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poprad ↓

Svidník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Poprad or draw
87%
Poprad or Svidník
83%
Draw or Svidník
31%

Winning margin

Poprad wins by 2+
47%
Svidník wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Poprad 1+ goals
91%
Poprad 2+ goals
70%
Poprad 3+ goals
44%
Svidník 1+ goals
62%
Svidník 2+ goals
26%
Svidník 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Poprad (draw refunded)
84%
Svidník (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poprad at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.90 · 58 matches

Svidník away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.35 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poprad attack 1.55 + Svidník defence 3.35 → ÷2 → 2.45

Svidník attack 1.06 + Poprad defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Poprad scores more
69%
level
17%
Svidník scores more
13%

Poprad at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Poprad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Poprad vs Svidník

Poprad and Svidník drew 0-0 in 3. liga - East on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadion NTC Poprad in Poprad.