PoPo 0–4 Sexypöxyt II: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

PoPo

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Sexypöxyt II

4/19/2024

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundKarhulan Keskuskenttä tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

PoPo63%

×Draw16%

Sexypöxyt II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PoPoExpected goals in this matchSexypöxyt II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.09

1.76

PoPo

3.09

Sexypöxyt II

1.76

PoPo creates 76% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

4.85

creates per match

1.67

1.85

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

PoPo

4.85

Sexypöxyt II

1.67

allows per match

PoPo

1.85

Sexypöxyt II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PoPo+0.00on par

Sexypöxyt II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PoPo ↓

Sexypöxyt II →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–03%

1–14%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

PoPo or draw

80%

PoPo or Sexypöxyt II

84%

Draw or Sexypöxyt II

37%

Winning margin

PoPo wins by 2+

44%

Sexypöxyt II wins by 2+

Team goals

PoPo 1+ goals

95%

PoPo 2+ goals

81%

PoPo 3+ goals

58%

Sexypöxyt II 1+ goals

83%

Sexypöxyt II 2+ goals

52%

Sexypöxyt II 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

PoPo (draw refunded)

76%

Sexypöxyt II (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

PoPo at home — creates 4.85, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Sexypöxyt II away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

PoPo attack 4.85 + Sexypöxyt II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 3.09

Sexypöxyt II attack 1.67 + PoPo defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

PoPo scores more

63%

level

16%

Sexypöxyt II scores more

20%

PoPo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "PoPo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff