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PoPo vs Nastolan Nopsa — Suomen Cup 2018

PoPo
PoPo
FT
11 – 0
Nastolan Nopsa
Nastolan Nopsa
3/19/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundRuonalan halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

PoPo69%
×Draw14%
Nastolan Nopsa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PoPo
4.92
Nastolan Nopsa
2.59

PoPo creates 90% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

PoPo
4.85
Nastolan Nopsa
3.33

allows per match

PoPo
1.85
Nastolan Nopsa
5.00

finishing

PoPo+0.00on par
Nastolan Nopsa+0.00on par

Total goals

97%Over
  • Over97
  • Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

91%Yes
  • Yes91
  • No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PoPo ↓

Nastolan Nopsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–21%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–26%
4–35%
4–43%

Most likely 4–2 (6%) · grid covers 53% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
97%3%3.5
92%8%4.5
83%17%

Double chance

PoPo or draw
83%
PoPo or Nastolan Nopsa
86%
Draw or Nastolan Nopsa
31%

Winning margin

PoPo wins by 2+
52%
Nastolan Nopsa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

PoPo 1+ goals
99%
PoPo 2+ goals
94%
PoPo 3+ goals
83%
Nastolan Nopsa 1+ goals
92%
Nastolan Nopsa 2+ goals
73%
Nastolan Nopsa 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

PoPo (draw refunded)
80%
Nastolan Nopsa (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
91%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PoPo at home — creates 4.85, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Nastolan Nopsa away — creates 3.33, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PoPo attack 4.85 + Nastolan Nopsa defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 4.92

Nastolan Nopsa attack 3.33 + PoPo defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

PoPo scores more
69%
level
14%
Nastolan Nopsa scores more
17%

PoPo at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "PoPo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: PoPo 11–0 Nastolan Nopsa

PoPo beat Nastolan Nopsa 11-0 in Suomen Cup on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Ruonalan halli in Kotka.