PoPo 2–4 Lahti Akatemia: Result & Stats

PoPo

2 – 4

Lahti Akatemia

4/4/2023

Suomen Cup · 2nd RoundArto Tolsa Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

PoPo41%

×Draw18%

Lahti Akatemia41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PoPoExpected goals in this matchLahti Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

PoPo

2.92

Lahti Akatemia

2.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

4.85

creates per match

4.00

1.85

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

PoPo

4.85

Lahti Akatemia

4.00

allows per match

PoPo

1.85

Lahti Akatemia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PoPo+0.00on par

Lahti Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes89
No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PoPo ↓

Lahti Akatemia →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1–01%

1–13%

1–24%

1–34%

1–43%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–35%

3–44%

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–34%

4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

82%18%4.5

67%33%

Double chance

PoPo or draw

59%

PoPo or Lahti Akatemia

82%

Draw or Lahti Akatemia

59%

Winning margin

PoPo wins by 2+

25%

Lahti Akatemia wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

PoPo 1+ goals

94%

PoPo 2+ goals

78%

PoPo 3+ goals

55%

Lahti Akatemia 1+ goals

94%

Lahti Akatemia 2+ goals

78%

Lahti Akatemia 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

PoPo (draw refunded)

50%

Lahti Akatemia (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

87%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

PoPo at home — creates 4.85, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Lahti Akatemia away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

PoPo attack 4.85 + Lahti Akatemia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.92

Lahti Akatemia attack 4.00 + PoPo defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

PoPo scores more

41%

level

18%

Lahti Akatemia scores more

41%

PoPo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "PoPo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff