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Popayan vs Valledupar — Copa Colombia 2019

Popayan
Popayan
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Valledupar
Valledupar
4/22/2021Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 2nd RoundEstadio Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Popayan51%
×Draw26%
Valledupar23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Popayan
1.54
Valledupar
0.93

Popayan creates 66% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

creates per match

Popayan
1.07
Valledupar
0.50

allows per match

Popayan
1.36
Valledupar
2.00

finishing

Popayan+0.00on par
Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Popayan ↓

Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Popayan or draw
77%
Popayan or Valledupar
74%
Draw or Valledupar
49%

Winning margin

Popayan wins by 2+
27%
Valledupar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Popayan 1+ goals
79%
Popayan 2+ goals
45%
Popayan 3+ goals
20%
Valledupar 1+ goals
61%
Valledupar 2+ goals
24%
Valledupar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Popayan (draw refunded)
69%
Valledupar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Popayan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Valledupar away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Popayan attack 1.07 + Valledupar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Valledupar attack 0.50 + Popayan defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Popayan scores more
51%
level
26%
Valledupar scores more
23%

Popayan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Popayan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Popayan vs Valledupar

Popayan beat Valledupar 4-1 in Copa Colombia on April 22, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.