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Popayan vs Real Soacha — Primera B 2018

Popayan
Popayan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Soacha
Real Soacha
11/7/2025Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - Quadrangular - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Popayan36%
×Draw30%
Real Soacha34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Popayan
1.09
Real Soacha
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 129 home / 56 away

creates per match

Popayan
0.99
Real Soacha
1.00

allows per match

Popayan
1.08
Real Soacha
1.20

finishing

Popayan+0.00on par
Real Soacha+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Popayan ↓

Real Soacha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Popayan or draw
66%
Popayan or Real Soacha
70%
Draw or Real Soacha
64%

Winning margin

Popayan wins by 2+
15%
Real Soacha wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Popayan 1+ goals
66%
Popayan 2+ goals
30%
Popayan 3+ goals
10%
Real Soacha 1+ goals
65%
Real Soacha 2+ goals
28%
Real Soacha 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Popayan (draw refunded)
52%
Real Soacha (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Popayan at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.08 · 129 matches

Real Soacha away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Popayan attack 0.99 + Real Soacha defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Real Soacha attack 1.00 + Popayan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Popayan scores more
36%
level
30%
Real Soacha scores more
34%

Popayan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Popayan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Popayan vs Real Soacha

Real Soacha beat Popayan 1-0 in Primera B on November 7, 2025.