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Popayan vs Fortaleza FC — Primera B 2018

Popayan
Popayan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
4/13/2023Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 5Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Popayan35%
×Draw30%
Fortaleza FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Popayan
1.06
Fortaleza FC
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 129 home / 107 away

creates per match

Popayan
0.99
Fortaleza FC
1.03

allows per match

Popayan
1.08
Fortaleza FC
1.14

finishing

Popayan+0.00on par
Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Popayan ↓

Fortaleza FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Popayan or draw
65%
Popayan or Fortaleza FC
70%
Draw or Fortaleza FC
65%

Winning margin

Popayan wins by 2+
14%
Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Popayan 1+ goals
65%
Popayan 2+ goals
29%
Popayan 3+ goals
9%
Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
65%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
29%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Popayan (draw refunded)
50%
Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Popayan at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.08 · 129 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Popayan attack 0.99 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.06

Fortaleza FC attack 1.03 + Popayan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Popayan scores more
35%
level
30%
Fortaleza FC scores more
35%

Popayan at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Popayan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Popayan vs Fortaleza FC

Popayan and Fortaleza FC drew 0-0 in Primera B on April 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.