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Popayan vs Fortaleza FC — Copa Colombia 2026

Popayan
Popayan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
2/9/2022Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st RoundEstadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Popayan33%
×Draw28%
Fortaleza FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Popayan
1.09
Fortaleza FC
1.21

Fortaleza FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

creates per match

Popayan
1.07
Fortaleza FC
1.05

allows per match

Popayan
1.36
Fortaleza FC
1.11

finishing

Popayan+0.00on par
Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Popayan ↓

Fortaleza FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Popayan or draw
61%
Popayan or Fortaleza FC
72%
Draw or Fortaleza FC
67%

Winning margin

Popayan wins by 2+
13%
Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Popayan 1+ goals
66%
Popayan 2+ goals
30%
Popayan 3+ goals
10%
Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
70%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
34%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Popayan (draw refunded)
46%
Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Popayan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Popayan attack 1.07 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Fortaleza FC attack 1.05 + Popayan defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Popayan scores more
33%
level
28%
Fortaleza FC scores more
39%

Fortaleza FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Popayan vs Fortaleza FC

Fortaleza FC beat Popayan 1-0 in Copa Colombia on February 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.