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Popayan vs Bogota FC — Primera B 2018

Popayan
Popayan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bogota FC
Bogota FC
2/10/2024Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 2Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Popayan44%
×Draw28%
Bogota FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Popayan
1.30
Bogota FC
0.97

Popayan creates 34% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 138 away

creates per match

Popayan
0.99
Bogota FC
0.86

allows per match

Popayan
1.08
Bogota FC
1.61

finishing

Popayan+0.00on par
Bogota FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Popayan ↓

Bogota FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Popayan or draw
72%
Popayan or Bogota FC
72%
Draw or Bogota FC
56%

Winning margin

Popayan wins by 2+
20%
Bogota FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Popayan 1+ goals
73%
Popayan 2+ goals
37%
Popayan 3+ goals
14%
Bogota FC 1+ goals
62%
Bogota FC 2+ goals
25%
Bogota FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Popayan (draw refunded)
61%
Bogota FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Popayan at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.08 · 129 matches

Bogota FC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.61 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Popayan attack 0.99 + Bogota FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.30

Bogota FC attack 0.86 + Popayan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Popayan scores more
44%
level
28%
Bogota FC scores more
28%

Popayan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Popayan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Popayan vs Bogota FC

Bogota FC beat Popayan 2-1 in Primera B on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.