Popayan 1–1 Alianza Valledupar: Result & Stats

Popayan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Valledupar

H. Mosquera 90+2'

M. Martinez 57'

5/8/2026

Copa Colombia · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Popayan43%

×Draw27%

Alianza Valledupar30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PopayanExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.10

Popayan

1.38

Alianza Valledupar

1.10

Popayan creates 25% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

1.07

creates per match

0.84

1.36

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Popayan

1.07

Alianza Valledupar

0.84

allows per match

Popayan

1.36

Alianza Valledupar

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Popayan+0.00on par

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Popayan ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Popayan or draw

70%

Popayan or Alianza Valledupar

73%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

57%

Winning margin

Popayan wins by 2+

20%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Popayan 1+ goals

75%

Popayan 2+ goals

40%

Popayan 3+ goals

16%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

67%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

30%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Popayan (draw refunded)

59%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Popayan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Popayan attack 1.07 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.38

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.84 + Popayan defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Popayan scores more

43%

level

27%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

30%

Popayan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Popayan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

M. Martinez

90+2'

H. Mosquera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff