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Pontypridd Town vs Caerau (Ely) — League #111 2026

Pontypridd Town
Pontypridd Town
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Caerau (Ely)
Caerau (Ely)
4/18/2026League #111League #111

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Pontypridd Town51%
×Draw21%
Caerau (Ely)28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontypridd Town
2.12
Caerau (Ely)
1.52

Pontypridd Town creates 39% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

creates per match

Pontypridd Town
2.33
Caerau (Ely)
1.60

allows per match

Pontypridd Town
1.44
Caerau (Ely)
1.90

finishing

Pontypridd Town+0.00on par
Caerau (Ely)+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontypridd Town ↓

Caerau (Ely) →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Pontypridd Town or draw
72%
Pontypridd Town or Caerau (Ely)
79%
Draw or Caerau (Ely)
49%

Winning margin

Pontypridd Town wins by 2+
30%
Caerau (Ely) wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pontypridd Town 1+ goals
88%
Pontypridd Town 2+ goals
62%
Pontypridd Town 3+ goals
35%
Caerau (Ely) 1+ goals
78%
Caerau (Ely) 2+ goals
45%
Caerau (Ely) 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Pontypridd Town (draw refunded)
65%
Caerau (Ely) (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontypridd Town at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Caerau (Ely) away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontypridd Town attack 2.33 + Caerau (Ely) defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.12

Caerau (Ely) attack 1.60 + Pontypridd Town defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pontypridd Town scores more
51%
level
21%
Caerau (Ely) scores more
28%

Pontypridd Town at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pontypridd Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #111: Pontypridd Town 0–0 Caerau (Ely)

Pontypridd Town and Caerau (Ely) drew 0-0 in League #111 on April 18, 2026.