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Pontivy GSI vs Rouen — Coupe de France 2018

Pontivy GSI
Pontivy GSI
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rouen
Rouen
12/9/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 8th RoundStade du Faubourg de Verdun

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pontivy GSI18%
×Draw27%
Rouen55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontivy GSI
0.71
Rouen
1.44

Rouen creates 103% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Pontivy GSI
0.60
Rouen
1.67

allows per match

Pontivy GSI
1.20
Rouen
0.83

finishing

Pontivy GSI+0.00on par
Rouen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontivy GSI ↓

Rouen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–117%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Pontivy GSI or draw
45%
Pontivy GSI or Rouen
73%
Draw or Rouen
82%

Winning margin

Pontivy GSI wins by 2+
5%
Rouen wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Pontivy GSI 1+ goals
51%
Pontivy GSI 2+ goals
16%
Pontivy GSI 3+ goals
4%
Rouen 1+ goals
76%
Rouen 2+ goals
42%
Rouen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Pontivy GSI (draw refunded)
25%
Rouen (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontivy GSI at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Rouen away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontivy GSI attack 0.60 + Rouen defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Rouen attack 1.67 + Pontivy GSI defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pontivy GSI scores more
18%
level
27%
Rouen scores more
55%

Rouen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rouen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pontivy GSI vs Rouen

Rouen beat Pontivy GSI 1-0 in Coupe de France on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du Faubourg de Verdun in Pontivy.