Pontivy GSI 0–1 Bastia: Result & Stats

Pontivy GSI

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bastia

F. Tomi 79'

12/20/2025

Coupe de France · Round of 64Stade du Faubourg de Verdun

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pontivy GSI15%

×Draw23%

Bastia62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pontivy GSIExpected goals in this matchBastia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.74

1.77

Pontivy GSI

0.74

Bastia

1.77

Bastia creates 139% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

0.60

creates per match

2.33

1.20

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Pontivy GSI

0.60

Bastia

2.33

allows per match

Pontivy GSI

1.20

Bastia

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pontivy GSI+0.00on par

Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontivy GSI ↓

Bastia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–213%

0–38%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pontivy GSI or draw

38%

Pontivy GSI or Bastia

77%

Draw or Bastia

85%

Winning margin

Pontivy GSI wins by 2+

4%

Bastia wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Pontivy GSI 1+ goals

52%

Pontivy GSI 2+ goals

17%

Pontivy GSI 3+ goals

4%

Bastia 1+ goals

83%

Bastia 2+ goals

53%

Bastia 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Pontivy GSI (draw refunded)

20%

Bastia (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontivy GSI at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Bastia away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontivy GSI attack 0.60 + Bastia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.74

Bastia attack 2.33 + Pontivy GSI defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Pontivy GSI scores more

15%

level

23%

Bastia scores more

62%

Bastia at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

J. Guevara

Bastia · D

8.5

Match Events

21'

43'

53'

66'

66'

72'

72'

72'

M. Ble← J. Sebas

79'

F. Tomi

81'

L. Faure← S. Welsh

83'

A. Zaouai← I. Karamoko

90+4'

Maxime Blé

90+3'

D. Basset← J. Guevara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PontivyBastia

Overview

41%Possession59%

6Total Shots12

4Corners6

13Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots12

1On Target6

2Off Target6

3Blocked0

4Inside Box6

2Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

311Total Passes452

229Accurate Passes378

74%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0