Pontian Eagles 3–1 Vipers: Result & Stats

Pontian Eagles

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Vipers

7/19/2025

South Australia State League 1 · Round 18Yalumba Drive Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Pontian Eagles33%

×Draw21%

Vipers46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pontian EaglesExpected goals in this matchVipers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

2.08

Pontian Eagles

1.76

Vipers

2.08

Vipers creates 18% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 33 away

1.00

creates per match

1.24

2.91

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Pontian Eagles

1.00

Vipers

1.24

allows per match

Pontian Eagles

2.91

Vipers

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pontian Eagles+0.00on par

Vipers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontian Eagles ↓

Vipers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Pontian Eagles or draw

54%

Pontian Eagles or Vipers

79%

Draw or Vipers

67%

Winning margin

Pontian Eagles wins by 2+

17%

Vipers wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Pontian Eagles 1+ goals

83%

Pontian Eagles 2+ goals

52%

Pontian Eagles 3+ goals

26%

Vipers 1+ goals

87%

Vipers 2+ goals

61%

Vipers 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Pontian Eagles (draw refunded)

42%

Vipers (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontian Eagles at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.91 · 11 matches

Vipers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontian Eagles attack 1.00 + Vipers defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 1.76

Vipers attack 1.24 + Pontian Eagles defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pontian Eagles scores more

33%

level

21%

Vipers scores more

46%

Vipers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff