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Pontian Eagles vs Adelaide Cobras — South Australia State League 1 2021

Pontian Eagles
Pontian Eagles
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Adelaide Cobras
Adelaide Cobras
6/14/2025South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 14Yalumba Drive Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Pontian Eagles27%
×Draw21%
Adelaide Cobras52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontian Eagles
1.47
Adelaide Cobras
2.12

Adelaide Cobras creates 44% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 52 away

creates per match

Pontian Eagles
1.00
Adelaide Cobras
1.33

allows per match

Pontian Eagles
2.91
Adelaide Cobras
1.94

finishing

Pontian Eagles+0.00on par
Adelaide Cobras+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontian Eagles ↓

Adelaide Cobras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Pontian Eagles or draw
48%
Pontian Eagles or Adelaide Cobras
79%
Draw or Adelaide Cobras
73%

Winning margin

Pontian Eagles wins by 2+
12%
Adelaide Cobras wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Pontian Eagles 1+ goals
77%
Pontian Eagles 2+ goals
43%
Pontian Eagles 3+ goals
18%
Adelaide Cobras 1+ goals
88%
Adelaide Cobras 2+ goals
62%
Adelaide Cobras 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Pontian Eagles (draw refunded)
34%
Adelaide Cobras (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontian Eagles at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.91 · 11 matches

Adelaide Cobras away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontian Eagles attack 1.00 + Adelaide Cobras defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.47

Adelaide Cobras attack 1.33 + Pontian Eagles defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pontian Eagles scores more
27%
level
21%
Adelaide Cobras scores more
52%

Adelaide Cobras at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Adelaide Cobras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Pontian Eagles 0–2 Adelaide Cobras

Adelaide Cobras beat Pontian Eagles 2-0 in South Australia State League 1 on June 14, 2025.

The match was played at Yalumba Drive Reserve in Adelaide.