Pontevedra 2–1 Rayo Majadahonda: Result & Stats

Pontevedra

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Rayo Majadahonda

12/14/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Estadio Municipal de Pasarón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Pontevedra47%

×Draw27%

Rayo Majadahonda26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PontevedraExpected goals in this matchRayo Majadahonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.95

Pontevedra

1.39

Rayo Majadahonda

0.95

Pontevedra creates 46% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 72 away

1.31

creates per match

0.96

0.95

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Pontevedra

1.31

Rayo Majadahonda

0.96

allows per match

Pontevedra

0.95

Rayo Majadahonda

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pontevedra+0.00on par

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Pontevedra or draw

74%

Pontevedra or Rayo Majadahonda

73%

Draw or Rayo Majadahonda

53%

Winning margin

Pontevedra wins by 2+

23%

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Pontevedra 1+ goals

75%

Pontevedra 2+ goals

40%

Pontevedra 3+ goals

16%

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

61%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

25%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra (draw refunded)

65%

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra attack 1.31 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Pontevedra defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pontevedra scores more

47%

level

27%

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

26%

Pontevedra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pontevedra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff