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Pontevedra vs Ponferradina — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontevedra
Pontevedra
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
4/12/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Estadio Municipal de Pasarón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Pontevedra38%
×Draw30%
Ponferradina31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontevedra
1.08
Ponferradina
0.95

Pontevedra creates 14% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 57 away

creates per match

Pontevedra
1.31
Ponferradina
0.95

allows per match

Pontevedra
0.95
Ponferradina
0.86

finishing

Pontevedra+0.00on par
Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra ↓

Ponferradina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Pontevedra or draw
69%
Pontevedra or Ponferradina
70%
Draw or Ponferradina
62%

Winning margin

Pontevedra wins by 2+
15%
Ponferradina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pontevedra 1+ goals
66%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
29%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
10%
Ponferradina 1+ goals
61%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
25%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra (draw refunded)
55%
Ponferradina (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra attack 1.31 + Ponferradina defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.08

Ponferradina attack 0.95 + Pontevedra defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pontevedra scores more
38%
level
30%
Ponferradina scores more
31%

Pontevedra at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pontevedra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pontevedra vs Ponferradina

Pontevedra beat Ponferradina 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pasarón in Pontevedra.