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Pontevedra vs Peña Deportiva — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontevedra
Pontevedra
CANC
00:00
Peña Deportiva
Peña Deportiva
4/12/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Estadio Municipal de Pasarón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pontevedra51%
×Draw25%
Peña Deportiva24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontevedra
1.62
Peña Deportiva
1.04

Pontevedra creates 56% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 14 away

creates per match

Pontevedra
1.31
Peña Deportiva
1.14

allows per match

Pontevedra
0.95
Peña Deportiva
1.93

finishing

Pontevedra+0.00on par
Peña Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra ↓

Peña Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pontevedra or draw
76%
Pontevedra or Peña Deportiva
75%
Draw or Peña Deportiva
49%

Winning margin

Pontevedra wins by 2+
27%
Peña Deportiva wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pontevedra 1+ goals
80%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
48%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
22%
Peña Deportiva 1+ goals
65%
Peña Deportiva 2+ goals
28%
Peña Deportiva 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra (draw refunded)
68%
Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

Peña Deportiva away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra attack 1.31 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.62

Peña Deportiva attack 1.14 + Pontevedra defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pontevedra scores more
51%
level
25%
Peña Deportiva scores more
24%

Pontevedra at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pontevedra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pontevedra vs Peña Deportiva — Match Preview

Pontevedra face Peña Deportiva on April 12, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Pontevedra host Peña Deportiva at Estadio Municipal de Pasarón.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.