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Pontevedra vs Las Rozas — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontevedra
Pontevedra
CANC
00:00
Las Rozas
Las Rozas
3/29/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Estadio Municipal de Pasarón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pontevedra41%
×Draw29%
Las Rozas30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontevedra
1.19
Las Rozas
0.97

Pontevedra creates 23% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 14 away

creates per match

Pontevedra
1.31
Las Rozas
1.00

allows per match

Pontevedra
0.95
Las Rozas
1.07

finishing

Pontevedra+0.00on par
Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra ↓

Las Rozas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Pontevedra or draw
70%
Pontevedra or Las Rozas
71%
Draw or Las Rozas
59%

Winning margin

Pontevedra wins by 2+
18%
Las Rozas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pontevedra 1+ goals
70%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
33%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
12%
Las Rozas 1+ goals
62%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
25%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra (draw refunded)
58%
Las Rozas (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra attack 1.31 + Las Rozas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Las Rozas attack 1.00 + Pontevedra defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pontevedra scores more
41%
level
29%
Las Rozas scores more
30%

Pontevedra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pontevedra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pontevedra vs Las Rozas — Match Preview

Pontevedra face Las Rozas on March 29, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Pontevedra host Las Rozas at Estadio Municipal de Pasarón.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.