Pontevedra 3–2 Langreo: Result & Stats

Pontevedra

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Langreo

4/24/2022

League #875 · Group 1 - 31Estadio Municipal de Pasarón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Pontevedra60%

×Draw23%

Langreo17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PontevedraExpected goals in this matchLangreo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.86

Pontevedra

1.83

Langreo

0.86

Pontevedra creates 113% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 26 away

2.13

creates per match

0.85

0.88

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Pontevedra

2.13

Langreo

0.85

allows per match

Pontevedra

0.88

Langreo

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pontevedra+0.00on par

Langreo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra ↓

Langreo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Pontevedra or draw

83%

Pontevedra or Langreo

77%

Draw or Langreo

40%

Winning margin

Pontevedra wins by 2+

35%

Langreo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Pontevedra 1+ goals

84%

Pontevedra 2+ goals

54%

Pontevedra 3+ goals

28%

Langreo 1+ goals

58%

Langreo 2+ goals

21%

Langreo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra (draw refunded)

78%

Langreo (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Langreo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra attack 2.13 + Langreo defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.83

Langreo attack 0.85 + Pontevedra defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Pontevedra scores more

60%

level

23%

Langreo scores more

17%

Pontevedra at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Pontevedra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff