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Pontevedra vs Covadonga — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontevedra
Pontevedra
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Covadonga
Covadonga
4/4/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Municipal de Pasarón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pontevedra58%
×Draw22%
Covadonga20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontevedra
1.93
Covadonga
1.05

Pontevedra creates 84% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 13 away

creates per match

Pontevedra
1.31
Covadonga
1.15

allows per match

Pontevedra
0.95
Covadonga
2.54

finishing

Pontevedra+0.00on par
Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra ↓

Covadonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pontevedra or draw
80%
Pontevedra or Covadonga
78%
Draw or Covadonga
42%

Winning margin

Pontevedra wins by 2+
34%
Covadonga wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pontevedra 1+ goals
85%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
57%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
30%
Covadonga 1+ goals
65%
Covadonga 2+ goals
28%
Covadonga 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra (draw refunded)
74%
Covadonga (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra attack 1.31 + Covadonga defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.93

Covadonga attack 1.15 + Pontevedra defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pontevedra scores more
58%
level
22%
Covadonga scores more
20%

Pontevedra at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pontevedra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pontevedra vs Covadonga

Pontevedra beat Covadonga 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pasarón in Pontevedra.